New UK Quarterly Beer Barometer shows accelerating decline in beer sales
27.10.2008
• Total beer sales down 7.2 per cent
• Beer sales in pubs down 8.1 per cent
• Supermarket and off-licence sales down 6.0 per cent
• Treasury’s beer tax ‘black hole’ set to reach £1.2 billion
Beer sales have fallen 7.2 per cent this quarter, compared with the same quarter last year, following last quarter’s 4.5 per cent drop, according to the UK Quarterly Beer Barometer, published today by the British Beer & Pub Association.
The UK Quarterly Beer Barometer is the most comprehensive set of data on beer trends in Britain. This quarter’s fall is the largest third quarter fall for a decade.
In total, 161 million fewer pints were sold in July to September this year compared with the same period in 2007 – a fall of 1.8 million pints a day.
Beer sales in pubs, bars and restaurants are down 8.1 per cent over the same period. The on-trade sold 104 million fewer pints during July to September this year compared with the same quarter in 2007 – down 1.1 million pints a day.
The new figures are an indicator of the impact the credit crunch and looming recession are having on British households – worsening beer sales are a further sign of weakening consumer confidence and falling consumer spending.
Sales in supermarkets and shops have also declined, with a 6.0 per cent fall on July to September 2007, the first fall since the second quarter of 2007.
As a consequence the Treasury is facing a £1.2 billion tax shortfall, in real terms, over the next three years compared with their forecasts. The BBPA estimates the Treasury has collected £138 million less in beer duty and VAT in the six months since the Budget.
In the year to September 2008, beer sales fell by 4.4 per cent compared with the previous year. Sales in pubs, bars and restaurants are down 9.0 per cent, while sales in supermarkets and off-licences are up 2.1 per cent.
BBPA Chief Executive, Rob Hayward, comments:
“The accelerating decline in beer sales is a clear sign of a worsening economy, worried households and weakening spending.
“The downturn has now broadened to affect sales through both pubs and supermarkets. This sales trend is symptomatic of the problems infecting the broader economy. But any prudent diagnosis would also identify the specific impact of the Budget’s nine per cent beer tax increase and the constant stream of costly regulatory burdens flowing from the Government’s alcohol strategy. These policies are making a bad situation worse.
“Sinking beer sales and the record five pubs a day closing is a barometer of the UK economic climate. We’re busy responding to the economic challenges of today. But we need greater flexibility. Government needs to be looking to ease the constraints of the tax and regulatory burden on our sector. We’re not looking for a handout just a hand-up. They must abandon their current plans to increase beer taxes by a third through a new tax escalator. They should also pull back from their current alcohol policy agenda which would introduce even more regulation on how alcohol is produced and sold in Britain.”
Notes to Editor
1. The British Beer and Pub Association is the UK’s leading organisation representing the brewing and pub sector. Its members account for 98 per cent of the beer brewed in the UK and own nearly two thirds of Britain’s 57,000 pubs.
2. The BBPA has a long-established and authoritative reputation for the publication of statistics on the UK’s brewing and pub sector. The BBPA’s Beer Barometer, published for the first time in July 2008, will generally be available within one month of quarter-end. Data is sourced directly with the Association’s brewing members, and accounts for 95 per cent of all beer including all lagers, brewed in the UK.
3. Beer duty was increased by 9.1 per cent in the Budget in March, and an ‘escalator’ was announced, with alcohol duties set to increase by 2 per cent above the rate of inflation in each of the next four years.
4. Estimates of the Treasury’s £1.2billion beer tax shortfall is contained in the Oxford Economics study “The impact of 2008 Budget on the Brewing Industry” September 2008 and is available at the link above.
5. UK Quarterly Beer Barometer tables follow, which are also available in excel format at the link above.
For further information contact:
Mark Hastings
Director of Communications
mhastings@beerandpub.com
Tel: 020 7627 9151 / 07784 181794